The Zero ODOL Paradox: Protecting Infrastructure While Increasing Logistics Costs and Commodity Price Pressures

Enwar Albar, Agus Purnomo

Abstract


The Zero Over Dimension and Over Loading (Zero ODOL) policy aims to improve transportation safety and protect road infrastructure by limiting freight vehicle dimensions and loads. However, reduced freight capacity may increase shipment requirements and logistics costs, potentially creating pressure on commodity prices. This study examines the potential effects of Zero ODOL on freight capacity, logistics costs, and commodity prices using actual data from 4,093 plastic resin shipments across Java in 2025 and a survey of 229 logistics stakeholders analysed using Partial Least Squares Structural Equation Modelling (PLS-SEM). The results indicate that freight capacity could decrease from 20.88 to 14.07 tons, a 32.64% reduction, potentially increasing shipments to 6,074 and logistics costs by 58.28%. PLS-SEM shows that Freight Capacity Reduction significantly affects Logistics Cost Escalation (? = 0.907), while Logistics Cost Escalation (? = 0.258) and Freight Distance Intensity (? = 0.632) positively affect Potential Price Increases. However, Freight Distance Intensity shows no significant moderating effect on the relationship between Logistics Cost Escalation and Potential Price Increases (? = ?0.029). These findings suggest that Zero ODOL may create cost pressures that require improved logistics efficiency to minimize potential impacts on commodity prices

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References


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DOI: https://doi.org/10.32535/jicp.v9i4.5180

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